Political Economy and Sustainable Development

The Research & Innovation team on Political Economy and Sustainable Development, headed by Prof. Dr. Kai Gehring, develops theories that combine economic knowledge with an interdisciplinary perspective. They test them rigorously, using modern quasi-experimental and experimental econometric methods. As part of their approach, they rely on a variety of data sources that extend beyond classical economic indicators and include spatial, historical, and text data. Two of their current key projects evolve around the role of narratives in enabling or preventing transformative change, and around the deforestation-free detection and mercury-free mining of gold in the Peruvian Amazon. In this research, they strongly rely on machine learning techniques, which they apply in natural language processing and in the analysis of spatial data such as satellite images.

Interview with Lina Götze, Research Associate in the Political Economy and Sustainable Development team l Headed by Prof. Dr. Kai Gehring

Main achievements in 2023

1. Clean gold mining: Groundwork for future collaborations

In 2023, working together with Hub South America, the team made significant strides in promoting responsible gold mining in Madre de Dios, Peru. Through stakeholder workshops in Peru and Switzerland, they brought together miners, indigenous people, and experts, fostering future collaborations. They discovered that misconceptions about mining have influenced past decisions by the private sector, NGOs, and governments. To address this, they work to provide high-quality, data-driven evidence to guide future decisions and ensure responsible, sustainable mining practices.

Team members, Fernando Fernandez and Kattia Diaz, and Abraham Terrones, from local partner CITE Minero, listening to a miner speaking about the value of education for his concession | Photo: Alejandro Portillo — Team members Dr. Fernando Fernandez and Kattia Diaz, and Abraham Terrones from local partner CITE Minero listening to a miner speaking about the value of education for his concession | Photo: Alejandro Portillo

Group discussion with members of academia on the pressing challenges of artisanal mining, as part of the workshop organized by the Wyss Academy, in Peru Photo: Juan Carlos Huayllapuma — Group discussion with members of academia on pressing challenges to artisanal mining, as part of a workshop organized by the Wyss Academy in Peru | Photo: Juan Carlos Huayllapuma

2. A new way to conceptualize and measure narratives

The team’s working paper about U.S. climate change policy narratives on X (formerly Twitter) in the period of 2010–2021 introduced a new approach to conceptualizing and empirically measuring narratives in textual data. Their analysis focused on stories that contain heroes, villains, and victims. They found that simpler stories with human characters, especially villain-focused ones, spread more widely. This trend is prominent in narratives used by populist leaders, and it impacts public climate policy discourse.

3. New connections: Carbon and biodiversity monitoring and monetization

While working on carbon and biodiversity compensation in Northern Kenya, a pivotal moment in 2023 was a successful stakeholder engagement workshop that significantly contributed to fostering collaborative discussions and informing a newly outlined theory of change for this interdisciplinary project. The team’s key learning was the identification of an extensive network of organizations already active in Kenya’s carbon credit sector, leading them to pivot their strategy towards connecting with these groups to build synergies, notably with the Laikipia Conservancies Association. This expansion was further consolidated by signing a memorandum of understanding with Natural State.

4. Insuring Peace: Role of financial aid during droughts identified

This research team’s working paper revealed that an insurance program in Kenya that offers financial aid during droughts effectively reduces conflicts, particularly among herders and farmers. Analyses of the period of 2001–2020 showed that insured herders travel less far from their ancestral homelands, which decreases resource disputes over contested areas. This highlighted the role of market-driven solutions in conflict mitigation, and the need for government agencies and NGOs to expand the accessibility of support to vulnerable groups.

5. Scientific Publications

In 2023, two of the team’s research papers were published in the Review of Economics and Statistics. The first one explores why Namibian households default on water payments, and tests interventions to encourage compliance. The second one provides evidence on the challenges of illegal resource production and trading in settings with low state capacity and recurrent group conflicts.