Climate Scenarios for Sustainable Development

The Research & Innovation team on Climate Scenarios for Sustainable Development, headed by Prof. Dr. Édouard Davin, explores the intersection of climate, land use, and biodiversity. They strive for a better understanding of the terrestrial biosphere’s role within the climate system. Their mission is to produce knowledge that can be directly used to create solutions for tackling climate and biodiversity crises. Their work is guided by three overarching questions: What are the risks of climate change to terrestrial ecosystems and people? How can nature-based approaches, among other strategies, address these risks? What is the potential for scaling up these strategies, and what are the resulting co-benefits and tradeoffs with sustainable development objectives?

Main achievements in 2023

1. New master course on nature-based solutions

The Climate Scenarios for Sustainable Development team has launched a new master-level course at the University of Bern, titled “Nature-based Solutions for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation”. In its first edition, 17 students attended the lectures, engaged in group projects and followed the presentations of external guests from industry, civil society and academia. A field excursion to one of Hub Bern’s incubators was also part of the program. The course was rated very positively by the students and increased the visibility of the team’s research and work in the field.

2. Urban heat in Swiss cities: New insights gained

Within this project, the impact of urban trees on surface temperature in five Swiss cities: Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich was quantified. A combination of satellite and socio-economic data was utilized to create a risk mapping approach to identify high-risk areas. De-greening and re-greening scenarios were then applied to assess the resulting effect on heat-related risk in the cities. Two workshops were organized as part of this project: one with a scientific focus and another with policymakers.

3. Future scenarios of forest microclimates created

Forest microclimates, such as temperature and humidity beneath the forest canopy, can be very different from the climate in nearby open areas. These variations impact the living conditions for many organisms. However, future scenarios for these forest microclimates were lacking. Using a process-based model, this gap was addressed by generating global projections of future forest microclimates. This marks a crucial step toward anticipating the impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity.

4. Future changes in biodiversity assessed

Understanding how climate change will impact future biodiversity is crucial. Additionally, land use change is also expected to be an important driver of these changes. Using species distribution modelling, the combined effect of climate and land use change on biodiversity was assessed on a global scale for terrestrial mammals, amphibians, and birds. This work was presented at various international conferences throughout the year.

5. Hydrological co-benefits of landscape restoration identified

Storing carbon in the soil is a promising climate mitigation strategy, but its potential effect on soil hydrology is still largely unknown. Using a global land surface model, it was found that this nature-based approach increases soil water availability. These results provide insights into how local restoration techniques, such as semi-circular bunds in semi-arid landscapes, could impact water resources and combat water scarcity.